Who Will Be the First Premier League Manager Sacked This Season?

Nine new managers started this Premier League season, a record. Six games have passed and all nine are still in their jobs.

That will change soon. Three managers have already separated themselves from the rest of the field, although for very different reasons. Álvaro Arbeloa has taken Fulham to the bottom of the table without a win. Michael Carrick has taken Manchester United from third place and Champions League qualification to their worst start since 1986-87. Roberto De Zerbi has a Tottenham side sitting 19th with three goals in six league games.

The bookmakers have Arbeloa as the favourite to go first, with Carrick and De Zerbi next in line. The interesting part is that only one of those three should probably be worried about his job.

Arbeloa Has Two Games to Prove Himself…

Fulham have two points from six matches. They lost their first three, drew with Liverpool and Manchester United, then somehow found a way to lose 2-1 to Ipswich after leading until the 88th minute.

That Ipswich defeat has put Arbeloa in serious trouble. Fulham conceded twice in the final stages, and Arbeloa did not use a substitution to protect a lead that would have given him his first victory. They have now conceded in the final 15 minutes in four of their six league matches.

The board's patience appears to have a very specific limit. TeamTalk reports that Arbeloa needs four points from Hull on Saturday and Coventry in the following game, while the Telegraph has reported concerns from some players over his tactics. Vítor Pereira has already been mentioned as a possible replacement.

For a manager six games into his first Premier League season, that is an extraordinary amount of pressure.

Arbeloa's CV does not give Fulham much reason to wait indefinitely. His senior managerial experience amounts to five months as Real Madrid's interim manager after Xabi Alonso was dismissed. He can point to his time at one of the biggest clubs in the world, but that does not automatically prepare a manager for the very different demands of keeping a Premier League side out of trouble.

Fulham had Marco Silva in charge last season and finished comfortably above the relegation fight. Six games into Arbeloa's reign, Silva's reputation has only grown among the supporters who watched him leave.

The next two matches will probably decide whether Arbeloa gets the opportunity to change that perception. Hull and Coventry are the sort of fixtures Fulham cannot afford to leave without a victory between them. If they do, the club will have to decide whether it still believes Arbeloa can turn this around.

Right now, the bookmakers have probably read the situation correctly.

Carrick Has Gone From Third Place to the Sack Race

Michael Carrick's situation is as weird as it can be.

Carrick averaged 2.3 points per game across 17 league matches, took United to third and secured Champions League football. The club rewarded him with a contract until 2028.

Six league matches into the new season, United have six points.

They have already lost a two-goal lead at home to Brighton, conceded after 47 seconds against Atlético Madrid and gone five matches without a win. United have not started a league campaign this badly since 1986-87, when Ron Atkinson was eventually dismissed in November.

The pressure is therefore understandable, but the timing is ridiculous.

Carrick has had six league matches. He is also working with a squad that still contains the recruitment mistakes of several previous regimes, while United have spent another summer trying to repair the damage. 

Lisandro Martinez has now publicly questioned the quality of the squad and pointed towards technical director Jason Wilcox. The manager is being asked to produce a functioning team while the club continues to work through problems that existed long before he got the job.

INEOS are reportedly still backing him, although an Italian report has suggested that Leeds on Sunday, followed by Como and Bournemouth, could prove decisive. Antonio Conte has already been mentioned as a possible successor.

This would be like shooting yourself in the foot.

Carrick was given the job because the club believed his previous 17 league games were evidence of something worth building. Six poor games doesn’t warrant a knee-jerk reaction. 

If United sack him now, they will once again be judging a manager in isolation from the conditions in which he is working, then beginning another cycle with another coach and another set of demands.

The club has spent a decade doing exactly that.

De Zerbi Needs Results and Goals Before Patience Runs Out

They have three points from six matches, no wins and three goals. Only three Premier League teams have ever had a less productive attack at this stage of a season, and Tottenham have already been knocked out of the EFL Cup despite another summer of significant spending.

Vinai Venkatesham has publicly backed De Zerbi, which is hardly surprising. Clubs rarely tell a manager they have lost faith in him before they have actually lost faith in him. 

The statement is still significant because Tottenham have already gone through enough managerial upheaval to know where another early dismissal would lead.

There is also a reasonable case for keeping De Zerbi.

He got Tottenham to safety last season, and Saturday's draw with Manchester United showed some resilience after they were reduced to ten men. Six league matches should not be enough to discard a manager who has already demonstrated that he can make the team competitive.

The problem is that Tottenham's attack is giving him very little protection.

Three goals in six matches leaves almost no room for mistakes elsewhere. Coventry come next on Monday, followed by Chelsea. Tottenham need points, but they also need to start looking like a team capable of creating and finishing chances consistently.

The chief executive can back De Zerbi all he wants. The manager eventually needs the football to make the case for him.

The bookmakers have him at 8/1 to go next, well behind Arbeloa and Carrick. That feels about right for now. A couple more poor results, however, and Tottenham's patience will be tested regardless of what has been said publicly.

So Who Goes First?

Arbeloa is the obvious favourite.

He has the worst league position of the three, a winless start, a reported points target over the next two matches and a possible replacement already being discussed. Fulham do not have the luxury of allowing a new manager to learn indefinitely while the club slides towards the relegation fight.

Carrick is second in the bookmakers' market, although his circumstances are completely different. United's start has been poor enough to create genuine pressure, but the club should think very carefully before throwing away a manager it appointed after seeing evidence that he could deliver results.

Marco Rose's Bournemouth are also winless on three points, while Pierre Sage's Crystal Palace lost three of their opening five before beating Nottingham Forest 3-1. Both will be monitored if results continue to go against them, but neither currently has the same level of scrutiny.

De Zerbi probably has the longest runway of the three. Tottenham have enough reason to give him time, but scoring three goals in six games leaves very little margin for another run of poor results.

If Fulham decide Arbeloa is not the man to keep them up, the decision will at least be understandable. If Tottenham eventually decide De Zerbi cannot fix an attack that has barely functioned, there will be a footballing argument for it.

If Manchester United sack Carrick now, the club will simply be resetting for a hundredth time.

And after everything that has happened at Old Trafford, another manager should not be the first thing United change.

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